“A Walk is as good as a hit.”

I always hated hearing that phrase from my high school and college coaches. Maybe it was the fact that I was typically a first pitch hitter, but walks just seemed so boring to me. After all of the battling that occurs between pitcher and hitter, at-bats that end in a walk just seem wrong. Sure, it helps the team, but does it really make THAT big of a difference?

Of course we know it does, but it makes more of a difference than what you might think.

For some reason, the 2012 Cleveland Indians seem to have the most unique blend of batters and pitchers in all of major league baseball in regards to walks. Let us begin with the good:

1.) As of May 1st, the Indians lead all of major league baseball in walks with 101, 11 ahead of the next closest teams (Padres and Rays). Consider also that the Indians only played twenty games in April (least in all of baseball), while the Padres and Rays each played 24 and 23, and you can begin to see that this year’s version of the Tribe has identified that patience is really a virtue.

2.) All those walks have allowed the Indians to post a .342 on base percentage for the month of April, which ranks them fourth in the league, behind only the Rangers,Yankees, and Cardinals. Your Cleveland Indians in the same breath as the Rangers, Yankees, and Cardinals? So far, yes.

3.) Travis Hafner posted a 17 walk/9 strikeout line for the month of April. A lot of that probably has to do with Hafner’s declining chase rate compared to years past. See below:

Season Chase Percentage (Swings/Pitches Out of Strike Zone
2009 25.6
2010 24.5
2011 20.3
2012 17.9

Hafner’s 17.9% chase rate is good for 10th lowest in baseball (for comparison’s sake, Gerardo Parra leads the league in chase percentage by swinging at 48.6% of pitches outside the zone). While we cannot assume he can keep up this sort of pace for a variety of reasons (injuries, off days, line-up changes, etc.) we can acknowledge the fact that some sort of “patient” philosophy is being discussed in the Tribe’s clubhouse. But here is where things get super interesting:

You would imagine a team that has had so much success via the free pass on offense would attempt to do everything it could to AVOID dishing out walks on the mound, right?

RIGHT?

Well…you would think they would; however, it seems as if the Indians staff has not gotten the memo. Despite ranking in the middle of the pack as a team as far as walks issued, the Indians rotation features two starters who rank 1st and 3rd in most walks per nine innings. (3rd- Justin Masterson at  5.10; Ubaldo Jimenez is 1st at a whopping 6.28 BB/9IP). Should we go into panic mode? Well, before looking at the picture, you must put the pieces together first.

I will begin with Justin Masterson. Aside from his Opening Day start against the Toronto Blue Jays, watching Masterson try and get his sinker over in deep counts has been pretty awful to watch. The pitch seems to be darting every which way except for into the strike zone. Despite his inability to locate the pitch, Masterson is still throwing  it over eighty percent of the time, highest in the league. There has to be some sort of hope or silver lining, right? Well check these numbers out, and let me know what you think:

First, let us look at the number of starts that Masterson has allowed four or more walks.

Year

Number of starts with 4+ Walks

Total Number of Starts

Percentage of Starts with 4+ Walks

2011

5

33

15.1%

2012

3

5

60%

I think it is easy to see this sort of performance was not common from Masterson last year. Last season he only had five starts that resulted in four or more walks, while this year he has already had three. This screams to me rough start above anything else; therefore, the 60% in 2012 is due for some serious correction. I mainly just showed this data in this way so you could get an idea as to how inaccurate Masterson has been in 2012. But what about the actual walks? What is interesting about them? In 2011, Masterson’s walk rate with men on base was 6.8%; however, this year, his walk rate with men on base has almost doubled to 13.0%. Despite the small sample size, it is easy to see that when Masterson has walked a batter this year, it has happened with men on base.

The more pressing issue? Ubaldo. It seems as if Jimenez just cannot find the strike zone no matter what he does. I believe some of it has to do with his wacky mechanics, but more of it has to do with his overall approach. Below is the same type of table I showed for Masterson, but this time it features Ubaldo’s numbers:

Year

Number of starts with 4+ Walks

Total Number of Starts

Percentage of Starts with 4+ Walks

2011

8

30

26.6%

2012

2 (He walked 3 each in the other three starts)

5

40%

Yikes. Even I did not realize how many times he walked four or more batters last season. Oh, and I forgot to mention: Even during Ubaldo’s magical 2010 season, he still managed to walk at least 4 guys in 10 of his 32 starts (31.3% of starts with at least 4 walks).

For comparison’s sake, also consider Ubaldo’s walk rate with men on base last season was a whopping 11.0% (9th highest in baseball). This year? It currently sits at 19.0% (7th highest in MLB). These numbers are no longer worrisome to me; they are flat out alarming. This season was supposed to be a bounce back season for Jimenez, but so far everything has continued to follow the pattern of last season. The only thing that has kept me from becoming seriously frustrated has been the struggles of Drew Pomeranz.

 

Justin Masterson gets an opportunity to right the ship tonight versus the White Sox. Try to watch the pitch sequences Justin utilizes when he walks a batter, because “A walk is as good as a hit.”

Tonight: Cleveland Indians (Masterson 0-2, 5.40 ERA) vs. Chicago White Sox (Danks 2-3, 6.23 ERA)

Follow Brenden on twitter @BrendenLowery

Also, Brenden is STILL attempting to assemble some more questions for a tribe mailbag for IPL. Send questions to balowery12@gmail.com!

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

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