Mark Simon, whose work you can find all over ESPN and whose voice you can hear on the Baseball Today podcast, has been organizing his much-anticipated baseball predictions contest for the past nine years. I’ve been lucky enough to be a part of the fun for the past five seasons (won the Rookie of the Year award in 2008), and thought it would be fun to turn the tables on Mark an in all-Indians version of the contest.
Before taking a look at Mark’s Indians predictions, check out this year’s official contest. As you can see, Mark goes well beyond the standard predictions, so we’ll test him on some slightly more in-depth Indians questions as well.
Over/Under 80.5 wins
Under. 77 or 78.The only other winning team from that division is the Royals and it’s gonna be barely over .500.
Mark doesn't expect to see much of Grady in 2012
Grady Sizemore games played: Over/Under 99.5
Under. And that’s too bad. He’s a shell of what he was.
Lower ERA: Ubaldo Jimenez or Drew Pomeranz?
I’m gonna say the karma gods have it in for Ubaldo after what he did to Tulowitzki. So Pomeranz.
Games behind Tigers at All-Star Break: Over/Under 6.5
Over. The Tigers will be 10 clear of everyone by the break.
Star or Shlabotnik: Asdrubal Cabrera [Star” if he reaches at least 1 of these 3– .290 BA, 25 HR, 90 RBI. Vote “Shlabotnik” otherwise]
Using my criteria…I’ll go Shlabotnik. I don’t think he duplicates his power surge from last year.
Asdrubal Cabrera Web Gems: Over/Under 7.5
Over. He’s good for 9 or 10… and with Derek Lowe on the team, gonna be more ground balls.
So what do we think of Mark’s predictions? Are we prepared for another Grady-less year with an ineffective Ubaldo, resulting in a 10-game difference in the standings by mid July? Let’s hear your responses to our mini Indians prediction contest in the comments…
I doubt the Tigers will be that dominant next year. People need to remember that Fielder is replacing Victor Martinez – the upgrade isn’t as significant as some people make it out to be.
Well they won the division by 15 last year so any upgrade at all doesnt bode well for the indians
He says “The only other winning team from that division is the Royals and it’s gonna be barely over .500”, then “The Tigers will be 10 clear of everyone by the break.”
Am I missing something?
the only “other” winning team… meaning, the Royals and the Tigers will have winning records.
Obviously his assessment is going to ruffle our “biased” feathers but I’d have to agree with him on a couple things. I don’t see a-cab repeating last years power surge. I doubt we see Grady for more than 80 games. Pomeranz plays in Coors while Ubaldo plays in the Jake. Hitters in the NL West are weaker than the AL Central, but I give a lot credit to what Ubaldo has accomplished in the past. A healthy Ubaldo> Pomeranz.
I’d like some feedback on these assessments:
1. Hafner–.290/25/90 y/n
2. Choo– .300/22/85/20 y/n
3. Kipnis– .270/16/75/15 y/n
4. Kotchman– .280/10/80 y/n
5. Brantley– .275/12/65/25 y/n
6. Lowe– 4.00/13 wins y/n
7. Duncan–.240/25/80 y/n
I’d say Y/Y/N/N/Y/Y
I do not see Detroit having a double digit lead at the halfway mark but we shall see…