There’s been a lot of discussion on this blog over the winter about a potential extension for Justin Masterson. Once Masterson expressed willingness to sign a three-year deal, rather than a six-year deal like Homer Bailey, it seemed possible that he’d reach an agreement with the Indians. Probable, even. It now seems like talks have completely fallen apart and there will be no extension. The Indians did not accept Masterson’s terms, which are rumored to be three-years at roughly $17.5 million per year. In just a brief amount of time scanning the Internet, I saw anger…LOTS of anger. People are absolutely livid that the Indians appear willing to let Masterson walk, particularly when he was willing to stay for a “hometown discount.” Are the Indians crazy like a fox, or just plain crazy?
One of the reasons that Masterson was likely willing to take the shorter deal is that he didn’t happen to fall off the turnip truck yesterday. He saw Ubaldo Jimenez wait until the cusp of spring training to sign his deal with the Baltimore Orioles. He saw Ervin Santana, a man who originally thought he’d get closer to $100 million over multiple years, settle for just one year with the Atlanta Braves. And this was a winter where there weren’t a ton of top-tier pitchers on the market. The top 3 were Santana, Jimenez, and Masahiro Tanaka – one that had never pitched in the United States and two that had their share of ups and downs in their careers. You’d think the laws of supply and demand would drive their prices through the roof; in the end, while Jimenez and Santana won’t exactly be begging for change outside of the stadium, Tanaka was really the only one to rake in an absurd contract. Teams are valuing their draft picks, more than the available free agents. Masterson realizes this. The current collective bargaining agreement expires in 2016; there are theories that the next agreement may tweak the qualifying offer situation. A three-year deal would carry Masterson into the new CBA, where he could hope for changes that would benefit free agents. He’d still be in his early 30s and could hope for some team to massively overpay.
At the end of the 2014 season, Masterson won’t be the only available marquee name on the free agent market. Barring extensions with their current teams, Max Scherzer, James Shields, and Jon Lester will all hit the free agent market as well. With so many big names out there, plus the weight of the qualifying offer around their necks, it’s likely to drive their prices down. The Indians could be gambling on the fact that Masterson’s asking price could come down. They could hope that his apprehension about hitting the market with a Cy Young winner and two other top of the rotation guys, bring him back to the table. Maybe they just don’t want to allocate $17.5 million a year for him, or think that the eventual asking price will be much lower. Regardless of what happens, Masterson has played his position brilliantly. He offered a home town discount, knowing it was a win-win for him. The Indians take his offer, he likely makes more per year than he would in a longer deal, plus he’s back on the market in three years in what could be a more welcoming environment for free agents under a new CBA. The Indians reject his advances and they become the bad guys; the ones too cheap to give Masterson the measly three-year deal he was ready to take just to stay in town. The Indians took a huge gamble on this, because they’re likely to get A LOT of fan ire from shutting down talks with the popular pitcher. We’ll see if this was insanely brilliant, or just insane.
Let me make the first knee-jerk reaction to this:
It was the Dolans being insanely cheap. I’ve chastised this town/region for horrible attendance for the Tribe, but in my opinion, this is indefensible. If Hoynes is correct, Masterson asked for 2yrs/$35mill or 3yrs/$51mill.
I get why a team like the Indians does not and will not sign a pitcher for 5 or more seasons at that money, the risk is too high. But not signing him at that rate for two or three seasons? Flat-out cheap.
I’ll say this – when there’s 9,000 fans on a Tuesday night down at Progressive Field this season, you won’t hear one peep out of me about it anymore.
Cheap? Who would pay $17.5M to an inconsistent pitcher? Ok maybe the Yankees would. Masterson is no CC or Cliff Lee…at least not yet.
There’s been 9,000 fans a lot of nights down at Progessive Field…during a playoff season. Continue making more lame excuses to not support the team.
17.5M a year for Masterson?,lol…how is that a deal? Just because he is their best pitcher dies not make him an ace….he isn’t. He hasn’t given them 2 straight years of good pitching yet. Bad…good….bad..good. Aces who make ace money always pitch good. I wouldn’t pay him more than $10M a year. That’s a lot more than the $5.6M he made last year. The Tribe is a small market team with attendance problems. They can’t afford to overpay a pitcher who isn’t consistent. Let him walk if he doesn’t like it.
$17 million is below market value for a pitcher of his quality these days. So yes, it’s a bargain in baseball economics.
No it’s not. It’s way above.
Masterson is in the $12-14M range – look up his numbers. He’s comparable to Ervin Santana, Jimenez, Garza, Nolasco, Edwin Jackson. All those guys are in the $12-13M per year price. $17M for Masterson is a joke – an absolute, utter joke.
The fans like to conveniently “ignore” that attendance problem. It’s a double-edged sword – the fans can’t complain about a frugal front office when they are unwilling to spend $10 to watch ONE baseball game in an August wild card chase. I’d offer him $40M/3 years – take it or leave it.
I’m from Pennsylvania I’m 19 and I’m a died hard tribe fan. If I still lived in Ohio I would be at every game. Hell I live 8 hours away and I still go to at least 3 games a year
You have spirit – unlike our worthless fanbase that is 5 miles from the stadium and refuses to go. Go Tribe.
I said this ten minutes ago:
“I’m almost happy for him. He gave the Indians a great discount and they still didn’t take it. Now he’ll get what he deserves.”
He’s not an ace in the truest sense of the word, probably never will be. But he’s the closest thing we got until/unless Salazar proves he can handle it. He knows this, and asked for even less than market value. WAY LESS than market value. Not to mention that he’s one of Tito’s guys. I really would like to know what he feels about the stand-still.
That is what’s so jarring about this: It just reinforces the stigma (regardless of whether it’s valid or imagined) that the Indians are penny-pinchers in a business that hardly makes allowances for such ways of doing business.
Justin tries to be a good team-first guy and they back out? It doesn’t make sense. It doesn’t look good at all and some folks have spun it alrady until they’re blue in the face with their rationalization(s) from the apparent Dolan point of view.
If they aren’t willing it commit to Justin, they must commit to Kipnis. It is the only way right now that they can tell us with a straight face that they’re still looking to be contenders for the long term. But just when I started to have faith in the Dolan regime (sans Francona; I trust him implicitly), they pull the rug from underneath their own franchise. AGAIN. I also wonder how this will play in the clubhouse. If they can’t keep Justin, one of the most selfless baseball players I’ve ever heard of or known about, then I have no faith that the younger “core” will remain here either.
Just last week, I thought the Indians going places. Now I feel they’re stuck in a loop of truncated flashes of contention with no real chance of becoming a franchise of extended consequence.
Man… This could’ve been a whole blurb to itself.
Chris, you need to expound upon this in your own article/post, because you so far have nailed this situation absolutely perfectly.
The Indians 2012 season ended horrifically, and interest in the Tribe was at a 1980s level. Francona gets hired, the team rips off 92 wins, enthusiasm for the team is slowly picking up again and then…..
THUD.
Well, it could stand to use some editing and proofreading first. This was fire-breathing anger where I didn’t even bother to look for goofs. 😉
But, I dunno, maybe there’s something big that they’re working on that merits walking away. It just doesn’t makes sense. People can chastise me for “living in the past,” but have some damned faith in your team and reward them with the extra mile! Hell, Masterson took it upon himself to go that extra mile instead!
Maybe I’m a naive idealist, but this just looks bad from all angles, and there needs to honest answers from Antonetti and Shapiro. (Paul Dolan, too, since he’s the guy who runs things, but does anybody trust him ever? Thought not.)
It’s just sad. Sad for us. Sad for the team. That carrot always looks so reachable and we never grab it.
The words, from the Dolans maybe five years ago, still ring in my ears:
“We’ll spend money when the time is right”… Apparently coming off a Wild Card appearance, with arguably the best manager in MLB, and the core of your team under the Tribe’s control for the foreseeable future (Swisher, Kipnis, Cabrera/Lindor, Santana, Gomes, Brantley, Bourn, Salazar, Kluber, McAllister, Allen) is NOT the right time to lock up your workhorse starter for two or three more years.
This isn’t me or you getting mad that the Indians didn’t go after Pujols, or getting mad because the Indians wouldn’t sign Lee or Sabathia to astronomical (and potentially fatal) long-ass contracts.
This is about an owner who runs the Indians like they are the Dollar General of MLB teams.
2007 they made the ALCS – they increased payroll $17M
2013 they made a wild card – payroll will increase (probably by $5-8M)
You can’t “ignore” the raises when they come due, whether you like it or not – that counts as “putting money into the team”.
CC turned down $18M a year from the Indians – so yes, they tried to sign him to a long-ass contract.
Do some research before you come on here looking like an idiot.
Oh my lord dude. $17M for Masterson is NOT his market value. Get a clue.
I can’t find a list of 2014 salaries yet, but in 2013 only 4 pitchers in the AL made more than $17 million a year – C.C. Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Jared Weaver. Is he really the next guy on that list?
17mil a year for masterson is absurd.
I’m waiting for the inevitable: “Back in my day, gas costs 35 cents a gallon and I could sit in the Stadium bleachers and buy sixteen hot dogs and a Nehi soda for one buck to watch the Indians!” posts…
Highest paid pitchers based on 2014 salary
1. Greinke – $26M
2. Lee – $25M
3. Hamels – $23.5M
4. Sabathia – $23M
5. Hernandez $22.9M
6. Tanaka – $22M
7. Cain – $20.8M
8. Verlander – $20M
9. Wainwright $19.5
10. Buehrle $19.5M
$17M would put Masterson at 11… and while I soooo wish the Indians could just throw that type of money around, it’s just plain silly to suggest they should make an extremely inconsistent pitcher among the highest paid in the game.
I would venture to say that all those salaries were attached to contracts that were at least four years long, if not (much) longer.
Masterson put it together in his mid 20s (26?), then suffered an off year the following season because of injuries, then followed with another very good, solid season last season.
The guy isn’t a lights-out ace, but he’s a workhorse who has shown the ability to put up very good numbers, and he’s arguably getting better, considering his weakness (pitching vs. lefties) has improved drastically, considering they had a combined OPS under .700 last year vs Masterson.
And the Tribe could have had this for a TWO YEAR EXTENSION.
…and of those contracts, how many of those teams would like a “do-over?”
Thus, this is why I am suggested that signing Masterson to a 2 year, or 3 year extension makes sense for a small-market team, and signing any pitcher at that money for 5+ years is an incredibly dangerous, potentially financially-fatal move. If Masterson puts up another season similar to 2011 or 2013 this season (seasons in which he was not bothered by a nagging injury like 2012), we’ll all see what his market value will be. If hypothetically he signs a long extension (4+ years), there is a good chance he won’t get $17 mill a year, but closer to $15-16 mill a season. By offering a short time-frame to the Indians, it seems logical that the per season salary will be a bit higher.
But hey, don’t let what I or others actually said get in the way of your pompous, douchey rants, Ghost. And if you actually think the Dolans offered Sabathia $18 mill a season with the idea that there was ANY chance he’d accept, I have a bridge to sell you.
You and the clue you seem to think you have can enjoy another mediocre five seasons or so after this one before another random Indians playoff contention, while gleefully posting such gems as “Man, I’m glad the Indians didn’t sign Masterson to a short contract paying him $2-3 mill a year more than Mr. 750 OPS Nick Swisher!”
Good article!
Masterson is not worth 17.5 million a year.I don’t care how many years
Check the numbers,look at Ryan’s list and check those pitchers numbers.If you don’t come to the same conclusion you’re in denial.
Add in the fact that he has a large platoon differential and he’s an even more inconsistent place to invest money.
Masterson is not worth 17.5 million a year on the open market,he knows it and that’s why he’s willing to take it.
$17.5MM per year is a lot of money, and not exactly a “hometown discount.” The shorter contract length favors Masterson; he’s not giving up anything by doing that. He’s the team’s union rep and he knows how to play the game.
The flip side is that Masterson’s play feeds the negative public perception of the Dolans, which will only hurt the team in the long run. And with Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco showing no signs of becoming reliable starting pitchers anytime soon, the loss of Masterson will be even more damaging to the team’s prospects.
I was angry about this until I read about the 17.5 million number. Wasn’t the offer from Masterson’s camp originally reported to be 3-4 years, 40-60 million? 4/60 is $15M a year. Where did $17.5M come from?
The Homer Bailey deal was an overpay and most GMs know it, so I don’t think we can fully look at Masterson’s deal through that lens. I would still consider something like 3/$45 to be a hometown discount, but not a huge one. $17.5M a year doesn’t seem like much of a discount to me. I doubt he gets much more than that on the open market, especially when you consider the draft compensation.
I should clarify that there have been varying reports of the salary figures. Here are the most recent ones I have seen:
Masterson and his agent Randy Rowley proposed a 2 year, $35 million deal ($17.5 million per) and a 3 year, $51 million deal ($17 million per). http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2014/03/negotiations_over_between_just.html#incart_river_default
The Indians supposedly countered with a 2 year deal, with an option, for about $14 million per. https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/446837026491727872
So there’s not an extremely wide gap here, and while there’s a certain finality right now to these talks, sometimes this stuff gets opened back up later. How many times have you heard “talks are completely over” to hear that “talks are sort of now ongoing” around the All Star break. It’s not like the Indians countered with a ridiculous low-ball offer though.
Either way, I had absolutely no emotion one way or the other on this when I heard it. I just shrugged and thought “Ohhhh boy, people are going to flip.”
I’m always down with us moneyballing our way to wins by capitalizing on market inconsistencies. I agree that pitching is a plentiful commodity relative to hitting which is why the organization has prioritized position players over pitchers in the draft and free agency lately. And for the most part I agree with the actions of the front office.
Is Masterson worth 17.5 million? On merit and past production as a player alone, probably not (although I would argue that Masterson seems to have “broken through” last year but it’s also possible that the jump in Ks was an aberration). However, is Nick Swisher worth 14 million a year? Absolutely not. Yet we still paid him. We invested in winning in the near term (2013-2016ish), if we are serious about capitalizing on this window how can we pass on signing Masterson. There is not any high impact pitching on the cusp, granted a Salazar might come out of nowhere, but we already lucked out once with that. I just don’t see where the better option to fill out our rotation in the near-term is.
Without Masterson next year what is the projected rotation? Salazar (who is still basically a largely unknown quantity), Kluber (another shakey asset), McAllister (who impresses no one), Bauer (don’t get me started), and some combination of Carrasco (probably never going to be a consistent starter)/Tomlin (gag)/minor league FA/TJ House/some other low-ceiling minor leaguer.
That projection is optimistic considering Salazar, Kluber, McAllister are far from proven commodities and Bauer, Carrasco, Tomlin can’t even be called major league pitchers.
I haven’t even gotten to the part where we consider that Masterson is the leader of this team and by all accounts a great person. I know intangibles are fools gold but what does it say to all the other players on this team that we are willing to let Masterson, who I firmly believe is entering the peak of his career (he was fantastic last year, remember him out dueling CHRIS-freaking-SALE, and has been great in spring) walk away.
I hate that my reaction is so stereotypically Cleveland-esque but man this is a real kick in the crotch. If we are going to make a run, let’s do it whole a$$ed.
Great post Seth.
And you nailed it, and I didn’t even think of this last night in my fog of anger, but WHY IN THE HELL DID WE BOTHER SIGNING BOURN AND SWISHER? Not only that, but considering that the vast majority of this team (Swisher, Kipnis, Lindor, Santana, Gomes, Brantley, Kluber, Salazar, McAllister, etc) is under control of the Tribe for a minimum of three years, most for relative peanuts, WHAT ARE THE DOLANS SAVING THEIR MONEY FOR?
It’s almost like the infamous Larry Dolan “We will spend money when the time is right” line was Cleveland’s version of “Read my lips, no new taxes” of years of yore…
If you like your Masterson you can keep your Masterson.*
*Until September
If AJ Burnett can get $17 Million (I understand only for one year) this past offseason, I can only imagine what Masterson will get on the open market.
At this point in his career, I am not sure AJ Burnett would sign a contract over 1 year.