Comments on: How the Indians can reach .500

By: matt

matt — Fri, 01 Feb 2013 08:24:40 +0000

I love statistics, literally adore statistics. Unfortuanatly they don’t predict the future. you can analize the past and put that into the mix, add a new coach and get more out of the math than anticipated. this is a no expectation year for the Indian fans, it is a long season and that give potential.

i will take it one game at a time and hope for the best outcome.

By: Swift

Swift — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 22:30:24 +0000

I guess that proves the Indians are an odd team. :p

By: Drew

Drew — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 21:37:23 +0000

You have forgotten the one key trend going in the Indians’ favor. They perform better in odd-numbered seasons. Look at the totals:

1995 = 100 wins
1996 = 99 wins
1997 = 86 wins
1998 = 89 wins
1999 = 97 wins
2000 = 90 wins
2001 = 91 wins
2002 = 74 wins
2003 = 68 wins
2004 = 80 wins
2005 = 93 wins
2006 = 78 wins
2007 = 96 wins
2008 = 80 wins
2009 = 65 wins
2010 = 69 wins
2011 = 80 wins
2012 = 68 wins

Since 1995, the Indians have averaged 86.22 wins per season in odd-numbered years and 80.78 wins in even-numbered years. That is worth about 5.5 additional wins. So if you analysis holds, then I think the Indians will win 86 games. I have said before that with this roster looks like a 77 game winner so adding in the odd-numbered year differential and the Indians win 82.

By: Love the Indians

Love the Indians — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 18:00:46 +0000

I think this is very realistic… Although I disagree that Chris Perez is overrated… He has had several years of success as a closer, although he has also been a challenge, he is not a lock down kind of closer though, but compared to Joe Borowski he is pretty good… I really believe the Indians have enough young talent to do pretty well this year…

By: Swift

Swift — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 17:44:33 +0000

As my mother-in-law would have said, “from your lips to God’s ear”. I’d been happy to see 81 wins; a couple more would be great. I’d like to have the feeling that we can at least compete in each game; I didn’t have that, particularly in the second half of 2012.

But I think a lot of that will depend on Masterson and Ubaldo.

By: Steve Alex

Steve Alex — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 12:36:23 +0000

I never put much stock in the WAR statistic but your predictions seem very reasonable. However, I find it difficult to be optimistic when the apparent starting DH is a Double-A Rule 5 acquisition who has never played in the major leagues.

By: Chris Burnham

Chris Burnham — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 06:06:35 +0000

My feeling is that this is a “honeymoon” season with good vibes. Next year is when I believe that expectations should set in. I also view this season a success if we can hit the .500 mark.

By: Vern Morrison

Vern Morrison — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 02:36:41 +0000

I’ve decided to not get my hopes up this season. If this team finishes with 81 to 83 wins, I’ll be a happy man.

By: Be Rad

Be Rad — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 01:16:16 +0000

I think their goal is .500 and it is definitely in reach with the roster turn over they have made. I have to say, I am pleased with this offseason. Masterson and Ubaldo screwed this year for us. Imagine if Masterson would have just repeated his ’11 and Ubaldo could have figured out how to be a 1 to 1.5 WAR player in ’12. With that confidence the pressure would have been on the Dolans to contend, and some team is looking likely to get the gift of a 1 year deal with M Bourne. With confidence in the top of the rotation and The Dolans “willingness” to spend a MLB measly 85-90mm, you could offer Bourne a 1 yr/15mm deal, which I think is realistic. We would not have to worry about losing a draft pick, but I’m not sure how much of our draft money we would lose, We get a CF leadoff hitter and shift Stubbs to 4th OFer. He could back up LF and CF admirably and see if he could play RF, so you could let Swish DH vs LHP and have Brantley Bourne Stubbs roaming around on those days. Not sure if he could handle RF. I honestly remember nothing about Stubbs throwing arm, so I will take that as average at best. This is what I think about, my Wife says I am sick and I don’t argue.

By: Chris

Chris — Mon, 28 Jan 2013 22:32:05 +0000

But I agree–progress towards contention in 2014 is the most important thing to look for in this upcoming season.