Comments on: A Change of Plans

By: Stephanie Liscio

Stephanie Liscio — Sat, 09 Jul 2011 06:48:14 +0000

I completely agree – I usually take the attitude, it’s not “if” they’ll blow it, but “when,” and how painful will it be!

By: TJ

TJ — Sat, 09 Jul 2011 02:57:38 +0000

While living and working in Europe, one of my best friends was Bill, an avid Red Sox fan. We used to follow Boston and Tribe games on our computer, drinking beer and playing chess until the sun came up. I noticed a real difference in our attitude toward our favorite teams. When Boston fell behind, Bill’s feeling was “We’ll come back.” When the Tribe fell behind, mine was “No way; the games over.” Interesting how one’s background can form for life one’s baseball outlook. Like Stephanie, I had given up on last night’s game, going into my kitchen for some ice cream yogurt with the bases loaded and Hafner up as ESPN gave Toronto’s winning probability at 88%. A DP seemed so likely. Hafner’s unexpected HR seemed like Redford’s HR at the end of The Natural. I am pretty sure we may look back on that game as the high point of the season. (My background made me write that last sentence.)

By: Stephanie Liscio

Stephanie Liscio — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 21:55:59 +0000

Mike…when Brantley struck out, I full expected someone to ground into a double play. Even though Asdrubal and Hafner are pretty reliable, I felt that type of ending would suit the game.

Drew…I saw somewhere recently (I think on the SweetSpot network) that Detroit’s lineup has the most dramatic good/bad lineup of all time, in the sense that their top 4 hitters are quite good, and their bottom 4 hitters are really bad. I think they’d really need to revamp that lineup, and assure they could get consistent performances out of several of their starters (instead of just Verlander). Unless Adam Dunn and Alex Rios start to hit about .700, it would probably be pretty tough for the White Sox to turn their performance around. Thanks for putting those numbers together – I think the Indians could play .500 ball the rest of the year and even 85 wins may be enough in the AL Central this year.

Tribefan14 and OUtribefan – I haven’t had a chance to see LaPorta bat since he came off the DL (I just heard his at-bats via radio), but I’m really interested in seeing his swing now. Hopefully the DL stint will help Choo and Carmona as well.

By: OUtribefan

OUtribefan — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 19:41:49 +0000

Tribefan14…I agree about LaPorta. I was telling my buddy at work about him, and more specifically, his swing. When LaPorta shortens up his swing (doesn’t try to hit a home run every at bat) he has such better plate appearances. He’s such a strong guy that he doesn’t have to swing for the fence to hit for power. He is a pure doubles hitter when he keeps a nice short stroke. I hope he keeps looking as good as he has been in the past couple of games, and hopefully Brantley can keep rolling, finally getting out of that slump.

By: Tribefan14

Tribefan14 — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 19:32:32 +0000

Anybody else see a change in Laporta since he returned from the DL. I think he has only one K and every other out has been hit hard. I think some of these injuries may be a blessing in disguise. A little time away can only help the likes of Laporta, Choo, and Carmona, who have all been struggling through the season. I have a feeling this team is gonna make a serious playoff push and I won’t be surprised at all if they make the postseason. Go Tribe!

By: Drew

Drew — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 17:28:11 +0000

I looked into the schedule for the Indians through the end of the season and devised a way for them to finish 90-72. However, I decided that this was aggressive because only 2 teams out of 6 made the playoffs in the previous three seasons with similar records and similar Runs scored/Runs allowed margins as of July 8th. One of those teams must be discounted because it was the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers, a team that traded for CC Sebathia. Also the Indians will have three make up games in the 2nd half which will definitely add a fatigue factor.

The Indians are playing .547 right now which if they can sustain it, will finish it with an 88-74 record. If they play just .500 ball through the end of the season they will finish with a 85-77 record. With these three methods, and observing that historically that the Indians are a 2nd half team, I feel comfortable that with what we know today (no new injuries and currently injured players return as scheduled) that the Indians will finish the 2011 season with a 88-74 record.

And that should be enough to with the AL Central this year. In the last 9 seasons, only 2 teams have finished 2nd in the AL central with a record better than 88-74. With the MLB parity this season, I don’t think 2011 will be any different.

In comparison, Detroit has even more dismal chances as they have a -4 run differential as of today and are only 5 games over .500. To finish with a 88-74 record, they will need to go 41-32 in the second half or play .562 baseball.

Chicago isn’t a seller yet but should be. Their chances of going 88-74 would require them to finish 45-28 or play .616 baseball. I do not think they have talent, the coaching, or the luck to pull this off.

Minnesota and KC are done needing to play .645 and .702 baseball respectively to reach the 88-74 record.

By: Mike

Mike — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 14:15:17 +0000

What a game indeed! I think I was in the same mindset as every Cleveland fan watching that game last night: “Oh my goodness, is it over yet? I can’t take this flip-flop from night to night!” I was happily surprised though at the end. As I watched the bottom of 9th unfold, and after seeing LaPorta get his first hit of the night (a solid double hit to right field), I thought, maybe the Tribe can get something done tonight afterall. Then of course, the sudden feeling that I was only dreaming when Brantley struck out with the bases loaded hit like a ton of bricks. What a finish though. Go Tribe and finish this half of the season with a successful home stand (Tribe takes 3 of 4 and stays 2 1/2 ahead of the Tigers at the break)!!