Mike Petriello posed an interesting question on Twitter on Tuesday. Basically, why the hell is Jose Ramirez morphed from an otherworldly MVP candidate to a Punch-and-Judy hitter? And the answer – surprisingly – is a rather simple one, sort of: he’s struggling mightily against fastballs. More specifically: he’s struggling against four seam fastballs, which – admittedly – seems strange enough. They’re generally thought of as the “straightest” pitches in baseball, using the grip that we’re all taught to dig for as we make any throw on the field. But here’s where it continues to get weird: Jose Ramirez, the man who topped eight wins above replacement last season despite a late collapse, has been one of the worst hitters in baseball against four seamers from right-handed pitchers.
According to his Statcast page, the switch-hitting third baseman has seen 231 four seamers from right-handers in 2019. He’s currently batting a paltry .093 with a slugging percentage of .185. Based on his Exit Velocity, Launch Angle and, as MLB.com explains, his Sprint Speed; Ramirez’s Expected Weighted On-Base Average – a true measure of his actual performance – is a pitiful .281.
Bad enough, sure, but consider his work against four seamers from righties since Jose Ramirez came into his own in 2016: .344, .417, .437, and – of course – his .281.
Ramirez’s exit velocity against four seamers from righties is in line with the three previous seasons; they’re all ranged from 88.0 mph to 89.5 mph. His BB% has fluctuated over the past couple of years, but it’s certainly within reason to his 2017 numbers (12.7% vs. 11.9%). But here’s the kicker: he’s swinging and missing at them a lot – like, a lot, A LOT.
In 2017 through 2018, Ramirez’s whiff rate on four seamer fastballs from right-handers was 5.4% and 6.0%. An incredibly reasonable amount for an elite hitter.
So far this season it’s at a staggering 18.1%.
And even when he is putting these pitches in play, the launch angle has ballooned from 24 degrees (from 2017 and 2018) all the way up to 32 degrees. The average spin rate on his balls in play against four seamer fastballs from RHP is his worst since 2015 (2,255 RPMs).
Continuing…
Ramirez’s In Zone Swing % against four seamers from righties has been incredibly stable since 2016, going from approximately 62% to 66% to 67% and 68%. But his In Zone Swing & Miss % went from about 4% last season to roughly 11% in 2019.
And the cherry on top of the sundae: his Chase Miss % on four seamers is nearly 40%, up from about 14% last season.
Personally, I’m not a betting man. But if I were, I would tend think this is a combination of noise and smaller sample size, and something that’s quite correctable.