I have a lot of respect for the Indians front office, and I’m inclined to trust them even when a transaction doesn’t immediately make sense. That said, no one is better at finding value than the Rays. And Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto, despite a limited track record so far, has proven to be an aggressive GM and an outside-the-box thinker. In other words, if the Indians front office were going to be outsmarted, a three-way deal with the Rays and Mariners is how it would happen.
Here’s a closer look at a few key points that I think need to be considered in order to evaluate these moves:
Bauers can play the outfield
This matters a little less now that Yonder Alonso has been traded to the White Sox, but Jake Bauers will likely still see some action in the outfield. Carlos Santana is a decent first baseman, so the Indians won’t pull him off the field completely. In 2017, he had +10 Defensive Runs Saved, and while that season was the outlier in his career, he’s still +2 DRS in over 6,000 innings at the position over the course of his career. At worst, he’s a league-average defensive first basemen, so there’s no harm in having him out there.
Bauers played 138 innings in the outfield last year (both left and right) and generated 0 DRS and -1 Outs Above Average (via Statcast). Those numbers don’t bode well for his long-term future in the outfield, but at 23 years of age he should be able to provide some adequate defense in right field for another year or two.
And we also can’t forget the mess that Bauers is replacing. For much of the season, the Indians were starting Michael Brantley and Melky Cabrera in the corners, two guys on the wrong side of 30 who both are a few years late in making the switch to first base.
Statcast tracked Bauers average sprint speed at 27.8 ft/sec last year, well above Lonnie Chisenhall (26.5), Brantley (26.1) and Cabrera (26.0). In fact, Bauers was also faster than every Indians player with the exceptions of Zimmer, Davis, Allen, Lindor and Guyer.
Even if Bauers is slightly below average in the outfield, he will still give the Indians a substantial upgrade over the disaster the Tribe suffered through last year. Brantley, Chisenhall, Guyer and Cabrera combined for -17 DRS in left and right field in 2018.
Diaz is more MLB-ready than Bauers
I don’t study MLB prospects, so I can only evaluate Bauers versus Yandy Diaz in terms of what they’ve done at the MLB level and some limited data from MiLB. So far, this does not generate a favorable comparison for Bauers.
Statcast generates a series of “expected” stats based on launch angle and exit velocity. Based on years of data, we know the expected outcome of every ball put in play, so we can estimate what a player’s numbers should look like if the the most likely outcome had occurred in each at-bat. In large sample sizes, these expected stats tend to come close to real life stats, but in smaller sample sizes (which applies to Diaz and Bauers) this data also serves a good predictor of how future at-bats will go. The expected stats are reliable in much smaller sample sizes than real-life stats, due the amount of luck that can influence stats such as batting average or slugging percentage.
Using these expected stats, let’s compare Diaz and Bauers’ 2018 seasons:
That’s a scary comparison for the Indians, who appear to have downgraded a critical spot in the lineup. There’s a good reason why Diaz was often batting cleanup when he was in the lineup last year, and based on his 2018 production, it appears unlikely that Bauers is ready for a similar role.
The Indians may have also forced themselves into a platoon situation with Bauers, a lefty.
In 2018, Diaz generated a .366 xwOBA versus righties compared to .334 against lefties. Bauers, however, dropped from .319 against righties to .265 versus lefties. To put that into perspective, Alonso (an extremely weak hitter versus lefties) generated a .297 xwOBA versus left-handed pitchers.
The Indians might be hoping Bauers can level out his performance over time. During his time in the minors last year, he actually generated a higher slugging percentage against lefties (.415 compared to .393). But in 2016, his slugging percentage versus lefties (.319) was a major red flag and nearly 100 points lower than his rate versus righties (.409).
In the short term, it’s hard to conclude that Bauers helps the Indians in 2019. Diaz was already performing at a high level when given an opportunity last season, while Bauers’ rookie year was a bit of a mess.
Of course, we have to acknowledge that Bauers is four years younger than Diaz. At 23 years of age, Bauers probably has a lot of talent still to uncover, while Diaz may be nearing his ceiling already. This trade was about 2020 and 2021 more than it was about 2019, so it could work out in the Indians favor eventually.
Encarncion vs Santana vs Alonso
I’m not entirely sure how to compare the Encarncion/Santana swap, because it’s unclear if those are actually the players trading places. Encarnacion was almost a full-time DH (he played less than 200 innings in the field last year). So Santana may actually be Alonso’s replacement and another move to replace Encarnacion’s power could be in the works.
But until that future move is made, we’ll assume Santana is expected to replace Edwin’s production:
This is another comparison that doesn’t look good for the Tribe. Based on Statcast’s data, Encarnacion outperformed Santana in every meaningful category, especially in terms of power numbers.
The Indians don’t need Santana to carry the offense, as he was asked to during a portion of his previous stint with the Tribe. Lindor and Ramirez should be expected to hit another 60ish homers in 2019 and be the catalysts in the lineup. In order for the Indians to compete at a high level, however, they do need Santana to be a significant power threat.
Over the past three seasons, Santana’s expected slugging percentage has dropped from .516 during the Indians 2016 World Series run, to .468 during the 2017 season and finally plummeted to .420 in 2018 with the Phillies. That’s nearly a 100-point dropoff in the span of three years—and given his age (he turns 33 in April) it’s not realistic to expect those numbers to rise again.
At this stage of Santana’s career, he probably offers limited value in the lineup beyond his strong walk rate. He has never hit for average and without power numbers to support his on-base percentage, he looks like a relatively easily replaceable piece of the lineup.
Among players with at least 500 plate appearances in 2018, Santana’s AB/HR rate of 23.3 ranked only slightly above average (players with at least 500 PA averaged 25.9 AB/HR). To put that number into further perspective, he only narrowly edged out Asdrubal Cabrera (23.7 AB/HR).
I don’t mean to suggest that Santana won’t contribute to the lineup in 2019—he’s still above average in many areas—but at this stage of his career his skill set just doesn’t translate well to today’s game. It’s not easy for a contender to overcome Asdrubal Cabrera-like power numbers from its first baseman.
Final Thoughts
I suspect the Indians front office views the 2019 season as a free lottery ticket. It probably won’t take more than 82 wins to clinch the AL Central, which should allow the Tribe to waltz into the postseason. And once you’re in, anything can happen.
However, they weren’t one or two players away from catching the Astros, Red Sox or Yankees. So no matter how this offseason went, the Indians were going to be heavy underdogs in the American League.
This reality likely pushed the Indians into a mini rebuild focused on the 2020 and 2021 seasons. They didn’t want to tear it down to the point where it could cost them the AL Central in 2019, but they also knew they needed to restructure the roster in order to compete in the top-heavy American League down the road.
So while the Indians got worse this offseason, they also got a little bit younger and gained some financial flexibility which hopefully allows them to be more aggressive a year from now in an effort to challenge the elite American League teams in 2020.