Everyone can assume Trevor Bauer is not meeting the expectations of the Indians. That would include the right-hander himself.

No self-respecting major-league pitcher would anticipate a 6.30 ERA after nine starts and 50 innings. It’s a tribute to his grit that he has been able to eke out a 4-4 record. Even after some poor starts he has been able to slug through enough innings to allow the Indians to come back and gain a lead with him on the mound. Manager Terry Francona obviously has some confidence in him, allowing Bauer to stay in the game after starts that would get others removed. There also have been some instances when he started on a night when the bullpen was already taxed and he HAD to get some innings in, for better or worse.

But what could we reasonably expect from Bauer? Here’s what the experts predicted.

Baseball Prospectus thought he would be trusted with 136 innings and compile a 9-7 record with a 4.29 ERA. They also foresaw 3.9 walks per nine innings and a total of 18 homers. If Bauer saw that, he likely thought he could do better.

The Bill James Handbook was considerably more optimistic, predicting 31 starts and a 3.91 ERA. James also said Bauer would allow more than three walks and about one homer per nine innings.

Ron Shandler was similar to the Prospectus folks in his Baseball Forecaster. He saw a 4.26 ERA with lots of homers.

It would seem likely that the Indians are thinking Bauer must improve of they will look for something better.

Do you agree? Comment below. I promise to respond.

3 Comments

  • Jimbo says:

    Bauer is somewhat of an enigma; one never knows what to expect. That said, I definitely expected more from him this year–at least a repeat of last year’s pretty good showing. But apparently, if Salazar is headed to the bullpen and Bauer is still in the rotation, they consider Salazar the bigger problem (I tend to agree, but then again, I’m not an expert, just a fan).

    • Dave Scott says:

      Hard to argue with 14 strikeouts in seven innings, so far. Of course, there were those three runs — four if Brantley’s throw were not perfect.

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