The Indians have won the American League Championship (I know you already knew that, I just really really love saying it). Now the question is whether they’ll face the Chicago Cubs or the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. “Cubs or Dodgers” is not quite as straightforward a question as, say, “Cake or death?” Even with inter-league play, we don’t see these teams very often. Since 1901, the Indians have faced the Cubs a total of 18 times (going 9-9) and faced the Dodgers just nine times (going 4-5). The last time the Indians played the Cubs was a four-game series in June 2015 (with a make-up game in August 2015). They went 2-2. The winning Tribe pitchers: Trevor Bauer (against Arietta) and Zack McAllister. Losing Tribe pitchers: Shaun Marcum (in a 17-0 blowout) and Zack McAllister. The Indians haven’t faced the Dodgers since July 2014, winning the series 2-1. If recent match-ups are relatively neutral, what are some reasons we might want to (or not want to) face each team?
Chicago Cubs
The 2016 Chicago Cubs were an absolute steamroller in the regular season, finishing with a 103-58 record. Collectively, the Cubs pitching staff had the lowest ERA (3.15) and WHIP (1.11) in the majors, and allowed the fewest runs (556). The Indians have batted .208 during the post-season, and just .168 in the ALCS. Pitching squad that doesn’t allow runs + team that isn’t hitting = bad combination. Starters Kyle Hendricks (2.13 ERA) and Jon Lester (2.44) were 1st and 2nd in the majors in ERA. Four Cubs starters (Lester, Jake Arrieta, Hendricks, and Jason Hammel) all finished with at least 15 wins. They also scored more runs than Cleveland during the regular season–808 vs. 777. Thus far during the post-season, they’ve scored 35 runs to Cleveland’s 27. And the NCLS isn’t even over yet.
In the bullpen, the Cubs have the Cuban Missile Aroldis Chapman, whose fastballs have averaged 100.4 mph this season. It’s tough to get a read on how Cleveland would do against him. As a team, the Indians have only 12 at-bats against Chapman, with 2 hits. Only one of those comes from a player currently on the roster (the indefetagible Coco Crisp). You want to face Chapman about as much as you want to face Andrew Miller.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Speaking of pitchers you’d rather not face, the Dodgers’ starting rotation is anchored by Clayton Kershaw, who is arguably the best pitcher in the majors. He is scheduled to start on Saturday for the Dodgers, which would make him unavailable for Game 1, but he’s pitched on three days rest during the post-season. Barring some unforeseen circumstances (for instance, gruesome nerd-hobby-related accidents), Cleveland will see him at least twice during the World Series. Kershaw starting isn’t a guaranteed win any more than Kluber starting for Cleveland is a guaranteed win, but it sure helps. Hitting-wise, the Dodgers batted .249 during the regular season with a .319 OBP. They also scored fewer runs than the Indians (725). Overall, the Dodgers worry me less than the Cubs.
The Whole History Thing
A Cleveland Indians-Chicago Cubs World Series is kind of a baseball nerd’s dream. Cleveland hasn’t won a World Series since 1948; the Cubs since 1908. They haven’t even played in the World Series since 1945. Both franchises have long topped lists of “Most Miserable Sports Fans.” It would be the battle of the underdogs. The problem is, the Cubs have made a cottage industry out of being perennial losers. It’s almost a source of civic pride. If they make it to the World Series, the rest of the baseball-loving world will likely root for them, not Cleveland. If the Cubs face the Indians and lose, the story will be “Cubs fans face more heartbreak,” not “Cleveland finally wins the World Series.” If the Cubs win, well, all baseball hell will break loose. The 2016 Indians will be the footnote to the end of the Cubbies’ Curse. Even among losers, the Indians come up losers.
So it is somewhat reluctantly that I say “Let’s go, Dodgers.”