Edwin Encarnacion is arguably the most dangerous weapon in the Blue Jays lineup and Corey Kluber‘s ability to get dispose of him could be one of the key’s to Game 1.
Encarnacion is just 3-15 (.200 BA) in his career against Kluber. That’s encouraging, but with such small sample sizes it’s tough to take hitter vs. pitcher stats seriously unless you can explain further why one side holds an advantage.
With the Encarnacion/Kluber matchup, it’s tough to say that Kluber definitely holds an advantage. The 3-15 mark could very easily be luck, and Kluber will need to be more careful with some of his pitches tonight than in past matchups.
The image on the right shows where Kluber has thrown fastballs to Encarnacion in their previous matchups.
It’s clear that Kluber isn’t afraid of Encarnacion. He’s attacking him in the zone and challenging Encarnacion to beat his best stuff. This is a dangerous approach by Kluber, however, as these zones match up with areas where Encarnacion handles fastballs well:
It’s understandable why Kluber has been forced to attack Encarnacion, however. He chases fastballs out of the zone just 21 percent of the time vs righties, well below the league average of 25.6 percent in righty/righty matchups.
For this reason, Kluber has preferred to attack Encarnacion with his offspeed stuff—but only after getting ahead in the count. In pitcher’s counts, Kluber has thrown just 28.6 percent fastballs in this matchup. Instead of his fastballs, Kluber relies heavily on the curve in these situations (with some of his slider/cutter hybrid pitch).
This is a far more favorable situation for Kluber to find himself in versus Encarnacion, who can be neutralized by well-placed curves.
As you can see from the chart above, Encarnacion will make pitchers pay for mistakes up in the zone but, like most hitters, he struggles with curves down in the zone.
Kluber is generally good at keeping his pitches down, but he isn’t perfect. Two of Encarnacion’s hits off Kluber have come off hanging curves (both doubles).
The image to the right shows where Kluber throws his curveball to righties. He clearly likes to keep it low and away, but it drifts into the heart of the plate at a somewhat concerning rate—and this is often when hitters do the most damage against him.
Clearly Kluber has the stuff to beat Encarnacion, but he will need to be perfect tonight. Encarnacion can change the momentum of the game with one swing, and Kluber should take extra care to avoid allowing that to happen in Game 1.