The answer to this question may determine the Indians’ ability to stick around in the AL Central this season.

Worst AL ERA Since May 17
ERA AVG OPS
1. Justin Verlander (DET) 7.88 .346 .985
2. Colby Lewis (TEX) 6.89 .338 .898
3. Max Scherzer (DET) 6.86 .319 .884

If Verlander and Max Scherzer are on top of their game, no one can compete with the Tigers in this division. But each pitcher has struggled this season, putting the division up for grabs.

Scherzer’s issues are a concern too, but he’s been plagued more so by a few awful games than consistently underperforming. Verlander, on the other hand, has been underwhelming from start to finish, continuing a disturbing trend from the past few seasons.

At 31 years of age, Verlander appears to be hitting the wall that may power pitchers reach at this stage of their career. He’s no longer able to throw the ball past anyone and he’s struggling to transition into becoming a finesse pitcher.

Justin Verlander Fastball
Vel Miss% AVG SLUG
1. 2014 92.5 14.6% .306 .481
2. 2013 93.3 19.1% .285 .440
3. 2012 94.1 19.7% .253 .420
4. 2011 94.8 17.8% .215 .362

While the effects of Verlander’s loss of velocity are hitting him hard this year, it’s been a consistent trend for the past four seasons. Verlander has lost velocity and seen an increase in opponents batting average and slugging percentage every year since 2011.

When you throw 95+, fastballs up in the zone are an effective weapon. Additionally, even if you miss slightly, you can get away with it. To see these points illustrated, just look at Verlander’s heat map of fastballs from his Cy Young/MVP season in 2011.

2011 verlander

But now that Verlander’s fastballs is hovering around 92 mph, he can’t get away with mistakes and he’s no longer able to successfully challenge hitters up in the zone.

2014 verlander

So can Verlander adjust in time to save the Tigers? That depends on whether or not his decline is simply due to a loss of “stuff” or if it’s a greater issue.

If Verlander has simply lost his ability to blow the ball past hitters, I’m not going to bet against him finding a solution. Most elite power pitchers are able to make the necessary adjustments later in their career (John Smoltz is a great example) once they lose their ability to overpower everyone.

But not everyone is convinced that Verlander has simply been slow to adjust to his declining tools. The Tigers’ blog Bless You Boys has theorized that Verlander’s issues may also be mechanical in nature, which would help to explain his increased walk percentage this season as well.

Verlander has been shelled in each of his last two starts against the Royals and White Sox. If the Indians can keep that streak alive, the Tigers may legitimately have to worry that a major weakness has been exposed in their rotation.

4 Comments

  • Ghost of Joel Skinner says:

    You’ve just guaranteed a 3-hit shutout tonight.

    Thanks.

  • Gvl Steve says:

    The Tigers have no one to blame but themselves for overworking Verlander for years. Every time I see Verlander pitch, he throws 115-120 pitches or more. There is a reason why most pitchers don’t go that long on a consistent basis. It takes a toll over time and has a cumulative effect. No one is immune.

    Verlander has averaged 110 pitches per start over the last 10 years. By comparison, work horse pitchers like CC Sabathia are at 104, Justin Masterson 100, Cliff Lee 102, and Clayton Kershaw 102. Multiplied over 30 starts a year over 10 years, that’s a lot of extra pitches thrown. They used him up.

  • Ghost of Joel Skinner says:

    Ahh…yeah, he’s not finished. Thanks. Stop posting these.