Look, I get it. Carlos Santana is finally starting to look like the guy we have expectations for, and he proved (finally) how much of a force he can be. This is the guy we want in the cleanup. But forgive me if I find myself taking a much more prudent approach before I declare him as now fully on board with the rest of the surging Tribe lineup.

I admit that I am an advanced stats agnostic. You can talk to me about his walks and his on-base percentage until you’re blue in the face, and I will likely tell you that walks are only as good as a guy can make them, and yes, that has to do with his friends. The harsh reality is this: The guy is still batting a paltry .171 after his supposed “breakthrough” game and that’s still nowhere near what he’s supposed to be, especially if you’re a lineup that still has some glaring holes. I am glad that he’s been excellent over the past week of games he’s been in (who knows if the concussion break gave him a reset button, but a lot of folks are jumping on that as well), but I’m keeping my enthusiasm tempered for the time being. If two hits and two walks is all it takes for many to throw parties, Indians fans in whatever means of social media would be downright unconscious when (or if) he ever goes 4-4 ever again. (I’m kidding! …Maybe.)

It’s fun to be a prisoner of the moment. I’m guilty of it, too. And I want my Scrooge-like ways to be shoved right back in my face. I want to be trolled with links to this very submission with all the schadenfreude you can muster.

But until we start to see some gradual improvement of more than one week, consider me skeptical in that he’s finally turned the corner. I may be the last one to buy in, and I’m okay with that. We are one full week into July, and the truth is exactly what my eyeballs see at this point. It’s probably best that you wait it out along with me, because it really sucks to get excited for ultimately nothing.

Considering how the rest of the lineup has had more success without him (and Swisher) flailing hopelessly for the first two months, it’s (to me, anyway) a minor miracle that they’ve been able to stay in contention for the postseason. The development of the other young guns in the lineup have certainly helped mask the shortcomings, but it certainly would be great if we saw this surge already.

Through it all, you have to start somewhere, and maybe this stretch truly is the spark. Better late than never, right? I might be the last guy to know, but I’d rather play it safe. Show me. It gets lonely being left out of the party.

14 Comments

  • Sean Porter says:

    You aren’t alone Chris.

    I’ve been biting my tongue over a colleague of yours consistent “look guys, Santana isn’t having as bad of a season as his .150 batting average makes it look. HE GETS WALKS GUYS!” narrative on here for weeks upon weeks now.

    I hope he’s turning the corner, but I would gladly let him sit at the bottom of the lineup for another week or two until he proves he’s back beyond a shadow of a doubt – bad luck proven by advanced sabermetric nerd stats be damned.

    • Chris Burnham says:

      Another eyeroller is the common “Well, look at what he’s done in career!” Last I checked, what has already been done has absolutely no bearing on *this* season.The sudden finger-wagging is downright annoying.

      If someone has to justify an everyday player hitting .171 after hitting only his seventh homer yesterday and we’re two months into the season, then there’s been something really wrong to this point.

  • Ryan McCrystal says:

    Santana Since May 11: .250 BA, .425 OBP, .889 OPS
    Santana Career: .246, BA, .365 OBP, .800 OPS

    Not sure how you argue that he isn’t back on track when his numbers are better than his career averages over the last month. This wasn’t a breakout game at all. He’s been on track for awhile now. His BA is low, but it always has been and always will be.

    • Sean Porter says:

      On May 11, Santana went 2-3, raising his batting average to .148. Two weeks later he was hitting all of .159 when he got hurt. In the last two games since he’s come back, he raised his average 12 points to .171.

  • If you choose to be willfully ignorant of “advanced” statistics like on-base percentage, any argument you make about Santana is completely irrelevant. A huge part of Santana’s game is, and always will be, his ability to not make outs.

    • Chris Burnham says:

      “Not make outs.” Yet he’s made a boatload.

      • JHGrimm says:

        Well, the biggest driver in not making outs is never batting ever. If you’re a major league player who receives substantial playing time, you’re going to make a ton of outs. If we’re don’t grant that rates of out-making are what he’s discussing, we’re making the argument that I am the greatest player in MLB history, as I have not ever made even one out at the major-league level.

        Now Phil’s a smart guy. He writes smart things over at Let’s Go Tribe. I’m willing to believe he’s not making the argument that I’m the best player in major league history. So if we assume that he’s discussing rates of out-making, then that ‘he’s made a great many outs’ wordplay becomes something of a non sequitur. Or provably false. One of the two.

        All the best.

      • DG says:

        If you are a batter that plays regularly, then you make boatloads of outs, no matter who you are. The point is, Santana is relatively good at not making outs. In fact, this season there are only 3 Tribe players who have been better at not making outs than Santana. That does have value.

    • Andy says:

      I would go further and say if you choose to ignore “advanced” (and OBP or pitches/AB are hardly advanced) statistics then anything you say about baseball is pretty irrelevant.

      • Sean Porter says:

        No one is saying to 100% ignore advanced stats, I understand their significance.

        My problem with them, and the people who solely use them, is that they can be used and twisted to fit any argument. To say that Carlos Santana for 90% of this season was a valuable, or even somewhat valuable part of the lineup is beyond laughable. He was a black hole. He wasn’t unlucky, he wasn’t due to break out, he was horrible. Now, it appears he’s starting to turn it around. Saying that he’s been “trending up” for quite a while is patently false.

        • Chris Burnham says:

          This. If your main contribution to the team are just walks, there are no forms of measurement that can say he’s been pulling his weight.

  • Gvl Steve says:

    Since May 11, Santana has 8 singles, 3 doubles, 3 homers (26 total bases), 13 walks and one HBP in 56 at bats and 73 plate appearances. I believe that is a .250/.383/.464 slash line with an .847 OPS. He’s an on-base machine, but he’s not driving in runs. His game is walks. Maybe he should bat 1st or 2nd. At least he looks a little better since coming back, but I cringed when I saw him batting 5th already and Chisenhall moved down.

    • Chris Burnham says:

      I like that idea.

    • Andy says:

      I actually think Santana’s best spot in the lineup would be 2nd. It takes advantage of his league leading pitches/AB by giving him more AB’s and puts him on base in front of guys like Brantley and Kipnis. The idea that you need speed or bat control out of the 2 hole is simply false in today’s game (ie no one sacrifices/hit and runs/steals/etc) anymore.