Sowers routinely worked his way through the first couple innings without incident, but after passing through the order once, he was shelled the second and third time around. Unfortunately, as Tom Hamilton noted on Sunday’s broadcast, Carlos Carrasco has been suffering from those same issues.
Take a look at Carrasco’s career splits based on the number of times the hitter has seen him in the game.
| I | Split | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st PA in G, as SP | 42 | 376 | 333 | 27 | 84 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 63 | .252 | .322 | .384 | .706 | |
| 2nd PA in G, as SP | 42 | 373 | 341 | 65 | 115 | 29 | 1 | 13 | 23 | 44 | .337 | .385 | .543 | .927 | |
| 3rd PA in G, as SP | 40 | 280 | 250 | 49 | 82 | 23 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 56 | .328 | .375 | .560 | .935 |
Carrasco’s numbers the first time through the order are perfectly respectable. But as soon as the order turns over, it immediately goes downhill.
These numbers are disturbingly similar to Sowers’ career splits detailed below (actually, they’re a little worse).
| I | Split | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st PA in G, as SP | 71 | 637 | 578 | 61 | 145 | 32 | 1 | 17 | 49 | 82 | .251 | .311 | .398 | .709 | |
| 2nd PA in G, as SP | 71 | 621 | 562 | 87 | 173 | 46 | 0 | 18 | 46 | 48 | .308 | .357 | .486 | .842 | |
| 3rd PA in G, as SP | 66 | 429 | 382 | 70 | 116 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 40 | .304 | .365 | .482 | .846 |
The logical solution for a pitcher like this is to move them to bullpen. The Indians never even tried with Sowers (he had just one career relief appearance) but as a soft-tossing lefty it was reasonable to assume he wouldn’t be a great fit there either.
Carrasco on the other hand has the stuff to excel in the pen. And while the sample size is small (just eight career relief appearances) he has been successful there in the past, with a 1.32 ERA and a 0.878 WHIP.
Between Josh Tomlin, Trevor Bauer and the rehabbing Shaun Marcum, the Indians have plenty of other options and if this trend continues for Carrasco, it’s only a matter of time before the Indians try to turn him into the next Jose Mesa.
Like you said in your piece, it made sense that the deeper Sowers went into the game, the worse he would do. He was a soft-tossing lefty with fringe stuff.
Carrasco has electric stuff, but little command and, well, questionable mental fortitude. Carrasco in the pen, though, could be very good. Let him air it out for an inning and get him out of there, and with him in the pen, he wouldn’t know when he’s going to pitch… (Thus eliminating him “over-thinking” or whatever is his problem regarding starting).
With Salazar going through the same problems, it wouldn’t shock me if Bauer AND Tomlin end up replacing both by May, with Carrasco put in the bullpen, and Salazar going to Columbus for some work. Long-term, it could end up being the best thing for all involved.
i think bauer will get called up before the month’s end. salazar might be determined after his next start. i agree that tomlin would be the right guy to put in there. i would peg our rotation at masterson, mcallister, kluber, bauer, tomlin
You know I’m on board with this idea.
Tell Carrasco to forget about his curve and change, and focus on the Slider/FB combo. His slider can be lethal when he controls it, and if he embraced a bullpen role he could be absolutely deadly.
But there’s a lot of questions about mental makeup, too.
Carrasco’s arsenal is nothing like Jeremy Sowers. Comparing the two yields zero insight. Neither does a quick look at “career” major league stats, most of which are a random assortment of appearances and starts, very few of them when Carlos was secure in a spot in the rotation, pitching confidently, or, most importantly, healthy. The only extensive, consistent time that Carlos had as a starter at the major league level was 2011, and patience paid off big-time, as he finally settled in after a rugged start to the year and was lights out for an eight-start span right before he was injured and required surgery. During those eight starts–which is what I regard as much more indicative of this talent than anything subsequent–Carlos averaged seven innings an outing with a WHIP of 0.94 and lowered his ERA from 5.00 to 3.54. Those are hardly the numbers of a guy who can’t get it done the 2nd or 3rd time through a lineup. Imagine what a positive it would have been had a 24-year old Carlos Carrasco been able to build upon that success. Instead, in the next start he injured his elbow and within a month he was done for two years. Even with his elbow throbbing, in Carlos’s very last start, he gutted out a full seven at Fenway Park, giving up only three runs. It’s easy to say a kid is mentally weak when we’ve never been through what he’s been through. I guess we think starters grow on trees and we can afford to just throw talents like his into the bullpen and be done with it. Me, I tell him he’s pitching every fifth day, period, and be done with it. We’re losing Masterson and we need Carlos AND Trevor AND Josh. Heck, I don’t just leave Carlos in the rotation, I extend him, now, when you can get him cheap. Just one man’s very, very minority opinion.
If the rotation remains the way it is now, Carrasco will start Friday’s game against the Giants at AT&T Park. And since I’m going to attend that game, I don’t want to see him start it! Make the change now.
vern on fan cam!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“Dating back to June 29, 2011, when Carrasco last won a start for Cleveland, he has gone 0-11 with an 8.28 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in 16 starts.”
take a minute to re-read those stats and ponder how awful they truly are. do we really need to keep repeating this experiment? anyone that watches cleveland (apparently with the exception of the front office and the managerial staff) has known for at least a year now that he isn’t a starter.
i had carrasco starting the season in the pen as for short/long relief and harang as the 5th starter.
kazmir and harang have a combine 5-1 record in a combined 8 starts,54 inn pitched,8 quality starts,and an era under 2. umbaldo has similiar stats to carrasco’s.
umbaldo’s contract is insane,not signing kazmir allowed for money for kipnis and gomes,but letting harang go was a big mistake given the uncertain alternatives at the time of his release.
carrasco may be best suited for the pen as the stats here reveal.