Last week, in a post about the new Rule 7.13 governing collisions at home plate, one of our regular readers, D.P. Roberts, posted the following comment:

“”On an unrelated note… do you guys at IPL take requests? I know that making predictions as a baseball writer is always fraught with
difficulty, but those sorts of articles are fun to read. I’d love to hear how you think/guess spring training will work out. Specifically, the big questions like:

1) Who is going to end up in that 5th starter spot?
2) Who will start at third base?
3) Does Giambi make the team?
4) Which relievers will make the cut?
5) Will the Indians sign anyone else (especially Masterson or Kipnis) to
long-term contracts this spring?

Well, we aim to please here at Its Pronounced Lajaway, so for your reading pleasure, may I present Spring Training predictions from the IPL staff:

1) Who is going to end up in that 5th starter spot?
Adam: My money is on Trevor Bauer unless he absolutely stinks up the joint in ST. Through one [lucky] inning, he appears to be just as erratic as in 2013. Other than that, I thought Harang looked good yesterday. Basically, it could be anyone, I just hope that someone siezes the moment and we’re not picking from a pool of guys who failed to separate themselves from the pack all Spring.

Chris: I think it’s Bauer’s job to lose. He’s too intoxicating stuff-wise to give him a clear shot at succeeding. As the fifth starter, there isn’t much pressure on him, so I believe they’ll give him at least a month worth of starts to prove himself. Being that he was the centerpiece of the Choo trade, he needs to start showing that promise. The fallback plan is likely Carrasco, but I’m even less enthused about him; mainly because I have no clue what his mental makeup is, or will be going into the season.

Justin: Unless carrasco gives up a lifetime of home runs in spring training the job is his, seeing as how he’s out of options.

Ryan M.: Bauer is the one who has a chance to truly lock it up during the spring, but I’m not betting on him. I think Josh Tomlin might actually be the safest choice. With his control, he’s a virtual lock to pitch into the 7th inning every game, which is a huge plus given the youth (and the ups and downs that accompany youth) in the rest of the rotation.

Sam: -I’ll go with Bauer. From everything I’ve read, he’s revamped his delivery and gotten back to the form he was at during his UCLA days. That is good news for the Tribe, because there was a reason he was the third overall pick in 2011. Even though he had a shaky first outing this spring, I think he’s going to finally put it together. I also think Carrasco is far better suited for the bullpen, and Tomlin and Harang will disappoint.

Stephanie: One of the worst predictions I’ve ever made in my life was during spring training in 2008.  I didn’t think that Cliff Lee should have made the rotation out of camp…I don’t even remember who I thought should have made the cut in his place, but it wasn’t him.  Just in case you needed a reminder, Lee won 22 games and the Cy Young that season.  So forgive me if I don’t have much faith in my starting rotation predictions.  I’ll make a prediction anyway, and you can come back here in a few months to make fun of me for it.  I’m going to go with Shaun Marcum, as long as he makes it through camp healthy.  Let’s face it – injuries and who knows what else could completely change the makeup of the rotation by the time the snow actually starts to melt (you know, around July or August).  Backup choice, if Marcum’s rehab doesn’t progress fast enough – Josh Tomlin.

Susan: Carlos Carrasco. We will definitely see Bauer this season, but he won’t be the 5th starter out of the gate.

Vern: Carlos Carrasco.

2) Who will start at third base?
Adam: Chisenhall against righties, for sure. I think we’re going to see less of Santana at third than you think.

Chris: Santana. His bat is too valuable on a team that still doesn’t have a whole lot of power. He’s going to have to a total disaster defensively to get pulled. It’s possible he’d just slot into a regular DH if that’s the case, but Chisenhall would have to have a monster spring for this to happen.

Justin: Lonnie chisenhall will still start at third. Santana will be good enough to play 20 or so games at third so the Indians can sit chisenhall against tough lefties.

Ryan M.: Santana/Aviles… Chisenhall is still young but he’s looking increasingly like the next LaPorta. The Indians want to win, so they won’t waste their time if he isn’t the best bat they can put in the lineup. The Indians can use Santana/Aviles at third, and keep someone like Elliot Johnson to fill Aviles’ utility role.

Sam: Carlos Santana. Even though the front office and coaching staff has been telling everyone to not read into this whole thing too much, there’s a reason he played winter ball at third base and has been playing there this spring. They want to see how he looks, and I think with how poorly Chisenhall has played; they’re going to give him the nod.

Stephanie: I’ve really wanted Lonnie Chisenhall to work out for the Indians.  Not just because I don’t want to lament yet another failed first round pick, but because there have been some flashes of good over the past couple of years.  I think he’s about out of time though, and barring something strange happening, or an injury, I think Carlos Santana will be at third.  At this point, for it to be Chisenhall, he’d have to just dominate this spring.  I remember a couple of years ago, when Matt LaPorta was about out of chances, I thought he would come to camp and finally take the first base job once and for all.  He had a mediocre to poor spring, eventually was removed from the 40-man roster, and now he’s in camp with the Orioles on a minor league deal – a minor league deal with no invite to the major league camp.

Susan: Santana and Aviles platooning. I’ve always liked Chisenhall and would love, love, love to see him storm the gates this spring and get the job, but he just seems to have the Matt LaPorta/Quad-A curse.

Vern: Lonnie Chisenhall.

3) Does Giambi make the team?
Adam: Go here: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=28898650&content_id=30909643 Watch that a few times. Giambi is making the team, and he’ll be on the team unless he has absolutely nothing left and retires mid-season. And I have no problems with this.

Chris: Yes. His leadership on the bench is worth much more than his on-field heroics. I know that’s kind of like having a 24-man roster, but he’s Tito’s man until Giambi decides to try his coaching chops elsewhere. He wasn’t a managerial finalist with the Rockies for nothing, y’know.

Justin: If he makes it through spring healthy there’s no question

Ryan M.: If he doesn’t it will be his decision. Francona has given every indication that he wants him around essentially as a player/coach.

Sam: Absolutely. Let’s get the whole .183 batting average out of the way, because that does not matter. What does matter, is his clubhouse presence, leadership, and pinch-hitting excellence.

Stephanie: After the game last September 24, Giambi can have a place on the team for as long as he wants, as far as I’m concerned.  He can hobble to the plate with a cane in one hand, and a bat in the other, and I’d probably still let it slide.  Because I was at that game and that is one of my greatest moments of 2013. (Although to be fair, I don’t get out much and my idea of a good time is carrying around stuffed cows in tiny Indians shirts).  Still, I sometimes scoff at the “intangibles” a guy brings to a team, since intangibles won’t necessarily put runs on the board.  I still think that Giambi has enough of a positive impact, even as a power bat off the bench, that there’s a place for him.

Susan: Yeah, but he won’t last the entire season on the roster.  He will either retire and/or the Indians will create a “special assistant” position for him so they can keep his experience and presence in the clubhouse without having to attach a .183 hitter in a roster spot to it.

Vern: The platonic baseball bromance between he and Terry Francona assures that he will.

4) Which relievers will make the cut?
Adam: Axford, Allen, Pestano, and Shaw are locks. Hagadone is on his last chance and he looked good for an inning yesterday so I’ll put him in there, too. I sincerely hope the Indians keep Carrasco in the pen so I can keep my “HE’S A CLOSER” dream alive. Other than that, I don’t have strong opinions except for Guilmet, who is completely mediocre and puts the fear of God in me.

Chris: Axford is the closer. Allen is the set-up man now, but Pestano might be able to regain the role if he proves he’s healthy. Scrabble and Outman are lefty locks. Shaw is in. Carrasco seems, to me, best-suited as a long-man, so I think he gets in as a floater where he can be used for an occasional spot start. It’s fluid right now, but those are the guys who are written in ink.

Justin: From back to front the bullpen looks like this. Axford, Allen, Shaw, Scrabble (now we have a full season trying to spell his name!) Outman (every bullpen needs a guy like that!) Pestano gets it together and I’ll say tomlin pitches well enough to grab a spot in the pen for insurance in case Carrasco blows up.

Ryan M.: Allen, Axford, Shaw, Pestano, Rzepczynski, Outman and Price… Allen, Axford, Shaw, Pestano and Scrabble are locked in. Outman is probably a sixth lock, but since he’s new I don’t really have a feel for what the team thinks of him. And even though he didn’t get a call up last year, I have to assume Bryan Price will be given every opportunity to win a job. His Akron/Columbus stats were ridiculous last year (2.04 ERA, 92 K, 16 BB in 75 innings). That’s seven guys who probably have a significant leg up on the rest of the competition. If an eighth guy makes it, it’ll probably be a long reliever but I wouldn’t bet on them keeping eight guys for an extended period of time.

Sam: Axford, Allen, Shaw, Rzepczynski, Pestano, Outman, and Carrasco. One name I am curious about is Vinnie Pestano. I personally don’t think he has a spot locked up. Last year was a disaster for him, and I really wonder if he has regained his stuff that made him so dominant. My wildcard is Blake Wood. The guy has an absolute cannon, throwing his fastball in the 97-98 range.

Stephanie: I’m going with the idea that Francona will likely go with an eight-man bullpen, because as everyone jokes, he’d probably have a 25 man bullpen if MLB would let him.  So you can count Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw, John Axford, and Vinnie Pestano as almost certainties, which leaves four more spots available.  With those, I’d probably guess Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin, Josh Outman, and Marc Rzepczynski.  Since Nick Hagadone has another option available after his negotiated grievance deal with the Indians, I think he would head to Columbus at first.  He’s the wild card though – he could claim one of those spots as his own.

Susan: Axford, Allen, Outman, Pestano, Rzepszynski, Shaw,  Tomlin. My dark horses are Price and Guilmet.

Vern: Axford, Allen, Pestano, Outman, Shaw, Rzepczynski. I hope Frank Herrmann does too, but I doubt it.

5) Will the Indians sign anyone else (especially Masterson or Kipnis) to long-term contracts this spring?
Adam: At this point, I’d be shocked if Masterson signs long term at all, and that’s fine. Rumor is he wants Homer Bailey money ($100 million) and that’s about $50 million more than he’s worth (I’d give him the exact deal Ubaldo got, and staple his lefty/righty splits to the contract sheet). Love Masterson as a player and person, but I get a real sense he drastically overvalues himself.
Kipnis, on the other hand, I suspect something gets done at some point that buys out the first year or two of free agency. Then he’ll probably be gone. So it goes, po-tee-weet.

Chris: I doubt it. And I mean at any point in time. But I’m a born skeptic anyway. Since it’s “Cleveland,” not a whole lot happens in our favor. I was the guy who was shocked when Thome went to Philadelphia after claiming that the Indians “would have to tear the uniform off” before he went anywhere else. Masterson conducts himself much in the same way as Thome did, but money is always the thing and it would be a change in the way that the Dolans do business if they are to give Masterson Bailey money (feels weird to say that, but here we are). Masterson may not try to squeeze for the last penny, but he likely will get more on the open market than what the Indians will be willing to pay.

Kipnis is pretty much the same story, but the timeline isn’t as immediate. I’ll say this: if there is some unforeseen way that the Indians manage to get both guys in the fold for the long-term, then it will prove that the Dolans are serious about being contenders for an extended period of time. But it’s up to them to prove that to us.

Justin: no to this spring. I think the Indians will have to wait till next year to lock up Kipnis. He’ll bet on himself to be even better this year than last. Indians will have to try to negotiate with Masterson this fall.

Ryan M.: I’d bet on Kipnis signing. But after seeing what Homer Bailey got from the Reds, Masterson would be crazy to not test the free agent waters.

Sam: Unfortunately, no. I think there’s a better chance for a Kipnis extension, but I think Masterson is out of the question. The Indians would have to fork over a very high amount of money, an amount they’ve never paid to a pitcher before, and I just don’t see that happening.

Stephanie: I’ve heard that the Indians have been exchanging figures with Masterson on a three to four year extension.  Even though I always prefer shorter deals (particularly with pitchers), I’m not sure if that would be enough to satisfy Masterson.  We’ll see though; I didn’t expect any longer term deals this spring, and they already inked Brantley to a new contract.  They could surprise me.

Susan: Not in the spring, but I’d wager that Kipnis will sign a long-term agreement before the end of the season. Masterson may well sign again with the Indians, but he is gonna need to get paid.

Vern: To quote the Magic 8-Ball: outlook not so good.

Adam: 6) Screw it, I’m writing in a bonus question: “Who do you think, if anyone, makes the team as a NRI (Non-roster invite)”?

I might be insane, but I’m rooting for Nyjer Morgan, because I think this is a perfect situation for his quirky personality… we have a strong clubhouse that can rein in his insanity, and he’d be a great fit on the bench with his speed and ability to play all three outfield positions.

Chris: Harang. As Tito’s saying goes: “When you have enough pitching, get more.” And the more veteran presences you can get, the better off they will be.

Susan: Matt Carson

 

13 Comments

  • Chris Burnham says:

    About Bauer, I meant to say that “his stuff is too intoxicating to NOT give him a chance.” I apparently need an adult to proof-read for me, because I clearly can’t do it on my own. 🙁

  • The Doctor says:

    for a manager who seems to have it together as much as Francona does, it’s baffling that there’s even a possibility of Giambi making the team.

    as soon as i see some analytics that show that “clubhouse presence” and the rest of the hollow baseball cliches win games, i’ll happily give him a roster spot. until that moment arrives, however, he and his .183 batting average need to go. he was worth -0.6 WAR last season. ugh.

  • medfest says:

    1)Carrasco and Harang will battle it out with the loser being the long man in the bullpen.

    2)Santana with Aviles as his caddy.

    3)No,the Indians sign Kendrys Morales to a three year 25 million dollar deal and he becomes the full time DH with Santana’s move to third.

    4)Axford,Allen,Shaw, Rzepcynski,Outman,Hagadone,Pestano or Wood,Harang or Carrasco.
    Because of the early schedule they will definitely start the season with an eight man bull pen.

    5)They’ll get Kipnis signed this season,maybe not by the end of spring training though.

    6)Harang and Sellers.

  • Adam Hintz says:

    I’m gonna take this comment space to justify Giambi to the masses (because I don’t want to write a whole post about Giambi during Spring Training):

    -His OPS+ of 85 was BETTER than Mike Aviles and roughly equal to Drew Stubbs (90) and Lonnie Chisenhall (88). From a part time player at the end of the bench, that’s not bad, especially given he boasts above average power for a bench bat.

    -If you take August out (when Giambi went .154/.171/.282), Giambi was really productive. He posted a .709 OPS over all months that don’t rhyme with Bawgust. That’s…. that’s pretty good for a bench guy.

    -His BABIP was .202. I know Giambi is slow and had some weak ground balls, but there was some bad luck there. His career BABIP is .295. Split the difference on a bounce-back season.

    -I think Giambi provides value as a player, so I don’t need to put any serious stock in the clubhouse presence thing, but I’m still buying in. The guys love Big G, and I believe his presence (along with Tito) kept the team from cratering at several points last season.

    -I think Giambi has a bounce-back year. He even breaks his own record for oldest player to walk off HR. Twice.

  • Gvl Steve says:

    I’m surprised at the number of votes for Bauer. I honestly don’t think he has a chance of breaking with the team until he shows some consistency at AAA, especially with Carrasco being out of options.

  • D.P. Roberts says:

    Wow, you did answer my questions! I’m honored. And I also feel like I should win a free t-shirt from this.

    So, just to put my money where my own mouth is…

    1) I think the #5 spot is Bauer’s to lose. I also think he’ll lose it this spring. I think Bauer is smart enough to finally put it all together, but not quite yet. He’s going to be this year’s Danny Salazar. Nobody will know who he is in June, but he’ll be the #2 guy in September. For now, I think it’s down to Harang and Carrasco, with Carrasco finally able to “turn the corner” this spring and take that spot.

    2) I’m pulling for Lonnie. Like Bauer, I’m pulling for guys I have seen in Columbus a lot over the past few years. I think DH is a natural fit for Santana on this particular team.

    3) Here’s the thing with Giambi. Someone will have to PUSH him off the team with their stellar performance, someone like last year’s Raburn or Gomes – it would be too stupid to not have some guy on your team, and then Giambi has to retire. After all, I don’t think anybody last spring said that Santana’s position at catcher was in jeopardy. Who steps up and takes that spot? Nobody this spring.

    4) It looks like everyone is (nearly) in agreement on Axford, Allen, Shaw, Outman, Scrabble, Pestano. Maybe Hagedone, but I think not – we need another long reliever (or two). I think our starters are underrated, but they struggled to go 5+ innings last year – will that change much this year? I doubt it, especially with Salazar still on a short leash.

    5) I also don’t think the Indians will spend much more money this year. I’m still surprised they extended Brantley.

    6) Bonus question – perhaps I watched Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner for too long, but I have a funny feeling that Nick Swisher’s shoulder injury isn’t as fully healed as he claims. What if he needs time off, or ends up needing surgery after all? Santana to first, but what if Chisenhall isn’t panning out? Aviles to third, but now you have an infield bench spot. I don’t know who it will be, but if an NRI makes it on the team, I’m kind of afraid it will go this route.

    • Stephanie Liscio says:

      We’re pretty bare bones here…the t-shirt would probably have the blog’s name written on it in sharpie!

  • Gvl Steve says:

    Santana is an important core member of the team. He was willing to change positions to help the team and has worked hard to do so. I don’t think the team will jerk him around. If he plays well enough to be the 3B, then he will be the 3B and Chisenhall will have to find somewhere else to play.

  • Kahanca says:

    Tell me what everyone thinks of a hair-brained theory I came up with. If Harang continues to prove to be a solid option for the 5th spot in the rotation, let Carrasco start the year as the long reliever out of the bullpen. From the sounds of it he’s beginning to conquer the head demons that kept him from reaching his potential in past campaigns. If that’s the case, why not let him build on that success early in the season through coming out of the pen?

    Carrasco could eat some crucial middle innings early on as the rotation is still building up their arms. In the process he wouldn’t be exposed to the high stress of starting while continuing to build his confidence. If this little experiment works and Harang still ends up showing he still has a little left in the tank, make a trade for a quality bat coming off the bench or a decent reliever to replace Carrasco once he moves to the rotation.

    • Stephanie Liscio says:

      I don’t think that’s a crazy theory at all. In fact, I kind of expect Carrasco to end up in the bullpen at one point or another.

  • Sean Porter says:

    #5 might get interesting, as Paul Hoynes is reporting that Justin Masterson and his agent have thrown together an extension offer to the Tribe in the neighborhood of 3 or 4 years, $40-60 mill.

    If true, I could actually see Masterson being an Indian for the foreseeable future. There’s no way I could see the Indians signing him to a Homer Bailey type contract extension (for good reason), but I could see something the Tribe doing a 3 or 4 year deal in the $13-15 mill a year range.

  • Gvl Steve says:

    There is a lot of pressure on the Tribe to sign Masterson now that he has agreed to go below market on years. It’s clever. He’ll hit free agency again at age 32 after the new CBA when there probably won’t be draft pick compensation deflating his value.