Is Drew Stubbs Psychic?

Drew Stubbs was recently quoted saying that the Indians could potentially steal 200 bases as a team this season.  Let’s take a look at the likelihood of his prediction coming true.  I’m going to run through a couple different scenarios to try and make a guess whether or not this is a legitimate possibility in 2013.

First I’m just going to compile the data of each player’s SB total on the current roster based on last year’s statistics.  This is what we have:

If we sum all these stolen bases up, we get 157 combined total SB based on last season’s statistics.  We can probably add a few more SB to this total to account for the other 2 bench players that will take spots this season.  So based on last season’s statistics, the Tribe falls about 40 SB short of the mark Stubbs has set.  Despite this, keep in mind that 160 SB as a team would have still led the MLB last year.

Now I want to take a look at each player’s highest career SB total and see if we can make the mark this way.  Here’s what I’ve compiled:

This totals up to a combined 204 SB in each of these players’ best SB seasons.  Again, we are missing a couple of bench players in this data, so we can reasonably add a few more SB to this total if every member on the roster had their best SB season.  Thus, we would break the 200 SB plateau if every position player on our roster at least matched their career year in terms of SB.

The last team to steal 200 bases in the season was the New York Mets in 2007.  However, Jose Reyes stole 78 bases for them that season.  When a player on your team is stealing nearly 80 bases in a season, it’s obviously going to make it a lot easier to reach the 200 SB mark.  Realistically, I think the Indians would likely need Michael Bourn to steal 60+ bases to have a legitimate shot at it.

Honestly, I think the Indians will fall short of the mark this year.  The main reason for this is due to Bourn’s drop in SB last season.  While his 42 SB are obviously still an excellent total, this is almost 20 less than his career year.  I figure that the odds are definitely against Bourn suddenly matching his career total again after a big drop off, coupled with every other player on the team at least matching their career years as well.

The wild card on the team is Brantley.  Brantley stole 46 bases in the minors in 2009 but has not stolen more than 13 since becoming an everyday MLB player.  Brantley’s SB ability in the minors has not translated to the big leagues yet, but I’m confident the Indians will make the 200+ SB mark if he has a breakout SB season this year.  Unfortunately, I’m not confident in Brantley making the jump this season.  Regardless, the speed that has been added to the roster this offseason makes the Tribe a more dynamic, exciting to watch team, and I would be shocked if they don’t lead the league in SB by season’s end at the very least.