Knock on wood. Absent a major team-wide meltdown or seriously rising creek over the next eight weeks, the Indians should be contenders/buyers at the July 31 trade deadline.
On offense the big areas of need are LF and 1B. Both are power positions but the Damon (.156/0/2) and Duncan (.196/3/10) platoon has not worked and at 1B Kotchman plays stellar defense but offers little run production (on pace for 55 RBI in 2012 after a recent ‘surge’). Jose Lopez offers a RH bat at 1B (.286/2/10) but it remains unclear if he is an everyday player.
The only upper level 1B/OF minor league prospect (besides LaPorta or Canzler) is Jared Goedert, a converted 1B/3B playing OF at AAA Columbus (AA: .395/5/17; AAA .333/2/8).
What outside help at 1B might be available?
Juan Guzman (Padres)
Position: 1B/LF
Stats: AB Avg 2B HR RBI OBP SLG SB
2012 120 .258 12 0 18 .333 .358 3/3
2011 247 .312 22 5 44 .369 .478 9/11
Career
vs. RHs .298 1st Half .250
vs. LHs .321 2nd Half .324
RISP .400 RISP, 2 out .429
2011 1B- 53 g (1.000) OF- 7 g (.990)
2012 4 g (1.000) OF- 27 g (.978)
Minors: .319 career avg. at AAA
Age: 27
Contract: 2012 $ 487k
2013 487k
2014 Arbitration eligible
Notes:
— Bats RH and hits LHs well; position versatility
— Plays in a dismal park for power numbers
— Good contact, gap power and clutch run production
— 43% of hits are line drives; BA on line drives .787
— Adequate fielder with experience in LF
— Can steal a base when needed
— No contract burden, won’t require top prospects
— Blocked at 1B in San Diego by high draft choice Yonder Alonso (obtained from Reds in Mat Latos deal; 7th overall pick 2008)
— Padres in perennial rebuilding mode, might be sellers to fill multiple holes
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Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox)
Position: 1B/3B
Stats: AB Avg 2B HR RBI OBP SLG
2012 70 .243 2 3 10 .316 .400
2011 .258 32 17 80 .373 .459
Career (avg) .288 41 23 98 .389 .490
vs. RHs .282 1st Half: .298
vs. LHs .303 2nd Half: .270
RISP .327 RISP, 2 out .314
Age: 33
Contract: 2012 $ 12,000,000
2013 12,000,000 (club option, $ 1,000,000 buyout)
Notes:
— Just returned from DL to play 1B; Adrian Gonzalez moved to RF so rookie 3B Will Middlebrooks remains in lineup for now
— Injury prone (wrist, back, hip, sports hernia), has averaged only 126 g the last 4 years and already missed 24 g this year (back).
— As a result, his power numbers have steadily declined
2008 29 HR 118 RBI
2009 27 94
2010 19 62
2011 17 80
— Bats RH and hits LHs well but does not address LF issue
— Performance, salary and prospect/trade costs make Youkilis an unlikely choice
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GABY SANCHEZ (Marlins)
Position: 1B
Stats: AB Avg 2B HR RBI OBP SLG
2012 122 .197 9 1 11 .244 .295
2011 .266 35 19 78 .352 .427
vs. RHs .256 1st Half .281
vs. LHs .310 2nd Half .234
RISP .269 RISP, 2 out .223
Age: 28
Contract: 2012 $ 487k
2013-15 Arbitration eligible
2016 Free Agent
Notes:
— Demoted to AAA by Marlins to fix his swing; may or may not be available
— NL All Star in 2011
— Bats RH and hits LHs well; played in an unfriendly hitters park so numbers may improve
— Normally hits well early so slow start a possible concern
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Others:
— Adam Lind (Tor/1B)
2012: .186/3/11
career: .263/27/93
bats LH
Contract: $ 5,000,000
219 g in LF but few since 2009
Reports are he is available
— Carlos Lee (Hou/1B/OF)
2012: .306/4/21
career avg: .286/27/99 but power declining last few years (18 HR in 2011)
Makes $ 18.5 million; free agent end of 2012
35 years old
1,764 g in LF, few since 2010
— Bryan LaHair (CHC/1B/OF)
2012: .310/10/21
minors: (6 yrs at AAA) .297/123/453
2011: .331/38/109
bats LH
While I’d love Youkilis, the best option of the realistic options is probably Carlos Lee. Adding a right-handed bat that could hit 6th would be a fantastic move. And as an added bonus, he’s actually not terrible in the field. And I’d even be ok with using him in LF on occasion, he’s not significantly worse than Damon/Duncan out there.
That said, I really would like to see LaPorta get another shot at some point in June/July before we spend money/prospects on someone like Lee.
Youkilis would cost too much and there are obvious worries about decline, health. His contract would stone the payroll just as we (possibly) get free of Hafner.
I agree on Lee. A solid avg/rbi guy who might be a legitimate rent-a-player down the stretch. My memories of him in LF for the White Sox are humorous, if not positive, sort of like Damon.
Not sure SD gives up Guzman but they have a lot of holes to fill. We need consistent, productive hitters to extend innings.
Lind might be lightning in a bottle if Bruce Fields can find his swing but he’s LH.
I would consider a last chance for LaPorta unless the AAA staff feel he’s a mirage. If he would just stay back, not guess and learn to go the other way . . . he has the natural power.
Even if Kotchman doesn’t start hitting, I’d be OK with keeping him at first, maybe with LaPorta lurking in Columbus, but finding an upgrade for Left Field. Kotchman is at least a major asset for defense; the Damon/Duncan duo in Left is neither a offensive nor a defensive advantage.
I’m nervous to even say this, but in the **post-season**, playoffs are won by pitching and defense, not offense. I would much rather have a quality glove at first, particularly with all of our ground-ball pitching, then a rent-a-bat that can’t field.
I actually like Lee, but there’s no way the Indians could take on all of that salary. That means they’d have to give up more in terms of prospects to get him.
I know attendance has been lower than expected, but they’re saving about $5 million – $7 million because of Carmona/Hernandez debacle. ($5 mil if he manages to return this year, $7 mil if he doesn’t). They spent, what, about $1.5 on Damon? They still should be able to take on some salary.
If they picked up Lee in July the cost would be $ 3-5 million. He’s a free agent after the season and no way they can re-sign him at that level. I like Guzman as a sleeper– low cost, SD is a seller, he’s productive and could play 1B against LHs and LF against RHs. Would solve 1B/LF the next few seasons as well.
I’ve been wondering for the past couple of weeks why the Indians wouldn’t give LaPorta a look in left. This is a team desperate for ANY offense in LF, and he can’t possibly be worse than the production they’ve gotten from the position already. Didn’t he log some time in the outfield at some point last year?
Rick,
LaPorta played in the OF in 2009 (39 g) and 2010 (7 g). The Indians kept him at 1B in 2011.
Will, you’ve given the correct answer to start…bring up Goedert…LF, RF, 1B, 3B…has shown he can hit for power and average…and hits to the opposite field with power(grand slam to right last night…happy birthday to him….