I’m probably one of the world’s worst predictors, except that when it comes to “pick the standings” contests. My point is that if you want to play a fun game, bookmark this post so you can come back and (probably) make fun of me later this year. I tried to predict where some of the big-name free agents would go last fall, and I was pretty much 0-for-whatever. There are methods to my madness though, so hopefully you can see how I came to these conclusions.
Breakthrough player to watch: Jason Kipnis
I don’t think I’m going very far out on a limb in thinking that Kipnis could have a pretty big year. While I don’t think he’ll quite reproduce the power he displayed when he was called up to the Tribe last season (most consecutive games with a home run by a rookie since Al Rosen in 1950 and 7 home runs in 136 at-bats), he’ll still be a presence in the lineup. In his short stint with the Tribe, he hit .272/.333/.507 and his career numbers in the minors are .297/.378/.486.
Comeback player of the year: Ubaldo Jimenez
Maybe I’m biased with this one, because I’ve always been a huge fan of Jimenez. If you look at his career numbers, it’s quite possible that as long as no secret injury was behind his drop in performance in 2011, that it was an anomaly. There are many Indians fans that still absolutely loathe the Drew Pomeranz/Alex White for Jimenez deal, but I’m not one of them. I’ll admit that I’m not 100% sold on the deal, but I definitely don’t hate it (yet). Even if he doesn’t reproduce his stellar 2010 season, Jimenez still kept his ERA below 4 and his WHIP below 1.40 for much of his Major League career.
Potential All Star: Carlos Santana
When one of my all-time favorite players, Victor Martinez, was traded to Boston, Santana became my surrogate Martinez in many ways. He looked up to Martinez, he was a switch-hitting catcher, he even adopted his #41. I know that I’m already biased toward thinking the best of him, but I honestly think he’s poised for a monster year. He already led the Indians in home runs (27) and OBP (.351) in 2011; I’m going to predict a modest raise to his batting average (.239 in 2011) and a jump in OPS. He may not have the defensive catching skills of Lou Marson, but could still fit well in a catching platoon. I’ll go ahead and predict that he’ll be wearing an Indians jersey at the All-Star game in Kansas City later this summer.
Pleasant surprise of the year: Jason Donald
With Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Lonnie Chisenhall (as well as Jack Hannahan) I think that Donald is often forgotten. He had a chance to win a spot on the roster last spring, but had a bit of back luck with an injury and started the season on the DL. Part of the trade that sent Cliff Lee to Philadelphia, Donald is often labeled a utility infielder even though he was once seen as a promising shortstop prospect. In just 132 Major League at-bats in 2011, Donald hit .318/.364/.402; his career numbers in the minors are .286/.373/.432.
Most likely to succeed off the scrap heap: Felix Pie
Out of all of the players signed to minor league deals with Spring Training invites, I think Pie has the best chance of success. Not that I think he necessarily will have success, just that he probably has the best chance. Maybe I feel this way because he was so hyped just a few years ago, and I’m not quite ready to give up. I’ve already discussed his stats at length in other posts, but at the very least he provides some depth at Triple-A in the case of injury. He’s probably a bit more polished than Ezequiel Carrera at least.
Breakthrough minor leaguer: Chen-Chang Lee or LeVon Washington
Washington was considered a very promising outfielder when the Indians drafted him in the second round in 2010 (he was actually a first round pick by Tampa Bay in 2009 but did not sign). However, after he struggled last season at Lake County (.218/.331/.315 with 4 home runs and 15 stolen bases), people seemed to think a bit less of his chances. I think he improves this season and puts himself back on the radar. If nothing else, he provides some entertainment via his Twitter feed.
Lee was the 2011 recipient of the Bob Feller Award as the Indians’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Between Akron and Columbus he was 6-1 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 99 strikeouts and one save over 71.1 innings pitched. With several young bullpen types traded or designated for assignment this off-season (Josh Judy, Zach Putnam, and Cory Burns) Lee represents one of the good, young relief arms still in the system.
Player that worries me: Josh Tomlin
I should preface this by saying that I really like Josh Tomlin. While his stuff may not be the best, he has an amazing ability to locate his pitches and remains calm and focused even when he’s in a jam. Because he doesn’t necessarily blow guys away with his pitches, there’s always the risk that hitters start to figure him out. He also struggled with injuries toward the end of the season, and though he’s supposedly healthy now, I still worry that they could flare up early in the season. With the Indians already down Fausto Carmona/Roberto Hernandez Heredia and Carlos Carrasco (Tommy John surgery) the Indians can’t afford to lose more starting pitchers.
Thoughts on Sizemore and Hafner:
Every year, for what seems like the past billion years, there’s the same old analysis – “if Sizemore and Hafner are both healthy…” The problem is, they’re pretty much never both healthy. It’s likely true – if both were healthy and productive for an entire year, it would be an incredible boost for the offense. And yes, I’m sure it’s possible that one day it theoretically could happen; unfortunately it’s probably the day I also watch a pig flap its wings and fly past my window. For years, I saw the Cubs base their game plan around the fact that Kerry Wood and Mark Prior would be healthy starters at the same time; that plan never came to fruition. Hafner and Sizemore may have their moments this season, but I’m not counting on the fact that they’ll both be there for the duration of the season.
With every fly ball pitcher Dan O’Dowd adds to the roster, the Ubaldo trade hurts a little more. Last year, I felt like U’s peripherals were fine. He started off hurt and never gained traction. I’m terrified that he’s going to have a big year this year. Your prediction is a smart one.
I expect big years from Jimenez,Santana and Kipnis the whole first base situation worries me immensely.
Belcher/Radinsky will clean up Jimenez’s motion ala Masterson and he’ll be dominant again.
Santana stops swinging at stuff out of the strike zone early in counts and has an OPS over .900
Kipnis will just keep hitting,he’s got a great swing .
Not getting production from your first base position really puts an offense behind the eight ball.
Kotchmann can’t hit and produce enough runs to justify his glove there.
Another reason I like the Jimenez deal is that I’m just not that high on White and Pomeranz (particularly White). Pomeranz could be a legit star, but I think White will eventually end up in the bullpen down the line. I saw Jimenez pitch during Spring Training last year at Salt River Fields (which is such an incredible park) and he looked amazing. I was kind of surprised when he unraveled later in the season.
I’m a bit worried about first base too, but I haven’t completely given up. I heard the Angels are still pondering a trade in Spring Training, and they definitely have some extra pieces. Something could still materialize as a better option.
I hate to say it and I know it has only been one year but LeVon Washington doesn’t look like a major leaguer. I hope I’m wrong.